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Office for National Statistics birth rate data for Carlisle shows a…
Drop over the
last decade
Drop over the
last 5 years
2010 births are the bulk
of your current year 6
2016 births are the bulk
of your current reception
2018 births will be the bulk of
your 2022 intake, and so on…
How does Carlisle fare compared to other districts?
The birth rate drop for Carlisle is in Category 3
This area is experiencing what we call the ‘cliff edge’ decline in student numbers. Birth rates started to tail off ten years ago, before dropping rapidly over the second half of the decade. Primary schools in this area may not have noticed a drop in the number of pupils applying. But the area will now or very soon be ‘going over the cliff edge’ in terms of the number of children applying to primary schools.
Category 1
Not significantly affected by birth rate drop. Low student numbers due to other issues.
Category 2
Low student numbers affected by a steady and significant decline over 10 years.
Category 3
A steady decline started 10 years ago, but in the last 5 years, the decline rate has increased.
Category 4
The birth rate decline has been only apparent during last 5 years. Schools may not be aware that they are about to be impacted by this.
Stark fact No 1: The birth rate in England and Wales is now lower than it has been since records began. In 2019, some 640,370 …
Since 2012 the birth rate in England has fallen 10%. It doesn’t take much working out that this, eventually, will mean a decrease in student …
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